A Tale of Two Cities - "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times..." Maybe it is Today

 
Updated Writing: Back in 1982, I was working for NCR in Dayton, Ohio and doing my grad work at the University of Dayton.  My instructor was a financial VP at NCR which made the course immediately at tad easier for me.  Early in the semester, this instructor took a liking to me. It was probably our third or fourth class when he became somewhat philosophical, and even emotional, about a topic - he discussed the misuse of economic power.  He did not discuss this from a technical viewpoint, but from social endgame viewpoint (remember, this was the early 80s - late baby boomers were flourishing - being a Yuppie was the in thing - it was the Reagan years - Round One).  After class, he asked me to come to his office. There was something he wanted me to have.  He handed me his marked up old copy of A Tale of Two Cities and said, "Bob, make sure you read this".  It was about two years later, after reading it – that I put the puzzle pieces together.

A Tale of Two Cities continued popularity is more about history repeating itself (IMO) than any economic theory or situation.  Not enough people read, especially our youth, which is why we are destined to repeat our history again and again.

Below Originally Published September 2012

Original Writing modified and expanded:  I very rarely express a political opinions, but I believe our politicians are tying our hands behind our backs and then holding us responsible for scratching our bellies and fining us if we don't...  I fear that in our lifetimes we will experience not only what we saw in Greece, but as an extreme, what we saw in Egypt (Note: Originally written in September 2012). It will not be the fault of one group, class, corporation, or party, but what we, as a people, ignorantly chose and even voted for. Thus it’s what we wanted.

Someone will, in their documentation of history, say: "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way - in short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only." ¹

From Wikipedia

In spite of what we learn, how smart we are, and the wisdom we have - history continues to repeat itself - Read about, (or even READ) A Tale of Two Cities.


¹  Wikisource: A Tale of Two Cities/Book the First/Chapter I







Bob Leonard
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The Similarities Between Mother Nature and Our Economy - The Sun is Shining.

Nature has an unwritten rule: “Survival of the Fittest”.  During fat times species flourish, populations grow and animals get fat.  Then Mother Nature unleashes her fury; there are droughts, hurricanes, volcanoes, tornadoes, earth quakes and asteroids all creating despair.  After the fury and, as again, the sun shines, the strongest, most innovative, most persistent and most prepared survived - weeding out the weak and making for a stronger balance in nature for the times ahead.  Mother Nature’s Fury repeats itself.  We recognize it as a thinning process; as terrible and cruel as it is, we accept it.

Disruptive Innovation

When I was doing volunteer work for SCORE, I frequently spoke to small businesses about the difficulties of a recession using the 'Mother Nature’s Fury' analogy.  Recessions are about survival for many businesses; those that survive will be stronger as they learned to be innovative (even disruptive) and persist.  The survivors will find there is less competition and more opportunity in post recession times..

The sun is shining.

Further Note on Current Times: Even though we are long out of recessionary times, we still have an economy that has a pent up demand and money sitting on the sidelines looking for a place to go. It (the economy) will likely get better in our near future - in spite of what people say, this is not the new norm.

bob
 

The Perfect Storm (Economically Speaking)

The perfect storm involves many components coming together in sync creating a much larger storm as each of the components, rather than opposing each other in some way, support each other.

We have that in our economy now as the following components seem to be in sync, or at least they are in my opinion.

1. Pent up capital goods demand - there is lots of need to spend and buy big things, from bridges to roads (in the infrastructure arena) to fork lifts, manufacturing equipment, communicating equipment, sales tools and systems.  This trickles down in a big way to household items and discretionary luxuries. UPDATE: September 5, 2012: Auto sales rise as higher gas prices, aging vehicles spur demand (Link Expired).
2. Capital sitting and waiting for someplace to be spent.  Huge amounts of dollars are starving for a place to go - a major contributing factor to why our interest rates are so low.

So why isn't capital demand hooking up with capital supply?  In my opinion (for some reason I feel the need to clarify that all the time), political uncertainty and instability; people (its all about people) do not invest until the rules have been defined and show some form of stability.  So why do we have political uncertainty and instability today?  The media...  The media is creating news, in my opinion <smile>, for the sake of selling news - and luckily, rapidly failing as well.  Stability is here (or coming quickly).  No matter who or what is, or will be in power, stability is here, more spending will occur and the economy will be perceived and recognized as better.  The who or what will only effect the level of good - all's good.

It's a great time to have business problems and be a business owner as people dream to have the problems you are about to face.

UPDATE: September 6, 2012: Someone told me today how "Office Furniture" is one of the economies leading indicators (Forward Looking) - and how hot it is NOW...

UPDATE: December 27, 2012: Jobless claims fall to lowest in almost 4-1/2 years.  ~ NBCNews.com Business.

UPDATE: January 3, 2013: Businesses added 215,000 jobs in Dec., survey shows.  ~ NBCNews.com Business.

Similarities between Mother Nature and Our Economy

Within nature there is the unwritten rule of “Survival of the Fittest”.  During fat times species flourish, populations grow and animals get fat.  Then Mother Nature unleashes her fury; there are Droughts, Hurricanes, Volcanoes, Tornadoes, Earth Quakes and Asteroids (Duck) creating despair and a  shortage of food and shelter.  After the fury the strongest, most innovative, most persistent and most prepared survive weeding out the weak and making for a better, stronger balance in nature for the times ahead.  Mother Nature’s Fury repeats itself.  We recognize it as a thinning process and as terrible and cruel as it is, we accept it.

Between 3 and 4 years ago, I was doing volunteer work for SCORE and frequently spoke to small businesses about the difficulty of a recession (Mother Nature’s Fury).  Recessions are about survival for many businesses and those that do survive because they were strong, innovative, persisted and prepared will find there is less competition and more opportunity as the sun begins to shine again.

The sun is shining.